Office for iPad - Does this mark the end of Windows
Let's jump in the time machine and go back to 1992. In that year Microsoft released two products that redefined desktop computing and helped make Microsoft, Microsoft.
Those two products were Windows 3.1 and Office 3.0. Yes there were earlier versions of both Windows and Office, but those particular versions are the ones that marked the end of the DOS era as well as the end of three benchmark products.
Prior to 1992, most users were still running MS-DOS and the three big productivity tools of the time WordPerfect, Lotus 1-2-3 and Harvard Graphics.
In the fall of 92, I remember very distinctly the releases of the first "Windows" versions of those three benchmark products. In short they were a disaster. Buggy and not very feature rich those three companies made a terminal mistake, they did not write their code to take advantage of the new world called Windows and opened the door for Office.
Most companies in 1992 were doing some basic trials with Windows 3.1 as a DOS replacement and when those initial Windows versions of WP, Lotus and Harvard failed, started looking at alternatives.
What sealed the deal was Office 4.0 in 1993. It's consistent interface and smart use of Windows features like the use of Clipboard to copy/paste contents from one application to the next, blew away the competition.
By the time Windows NT then 95 came out, the combination of Windows and Office became the defacto standard and WordPerfect, Lotus and Harvard all faded to obscurity.
So flash forward to 2014. On March 27th, Microsoft announced Office for iPad, with the same three applications, Word, Excel and Powerpoint that it had changed the world with back in 1992.
Microsoft has had a relationship with Apple for years and in fact Office was first released for the Mac before Windows and the most popular app still to this day on MacOS is Office for the Mac.
But this release has a different impact and potentially is the beginning of the end for Windows.
For the first time in over 20 years, PC sales are shrinking. Sure there are nearly 300M PCs still sold each year, but that number dropped 9.3% in 2013 and predictions are that that it will drop as much as another 10 - 12% by 2015. On the tablet and phone side however the numbers are exploding. In excess of 1B devices will be sold this year alone. And while MS has released some point solutions like OneNote, their benchmark Office product was no where to be found on the platforms leading this new era.
The question is - how will this align with Microsoft device and services strategy and will users care ? Because MS was slow to release Office, others have stepped in including Apple who is including their productivity tools for free.
I downloaded the Office for iPad apps on my iPad mini and gave them a short spin. Here is what I experienced.
First, the apps look good and do have good document fidelity with their Windows versions. I downloaded some complex Word documents from my PC developed on Office 2013 and they displayed fine in Office for iPad. The key word here is display. Microsoft requires an Office365 license to develop or edit documents.
Second, I immediately was wanting to open an Office 365 Account to be able to edit. And I think that is exactly what Microsoft wants. In fact for existing Office365 customers, they could have immediate access to content on OneDrive Pro and begin to use the apps immediately with no additional licensing costs. Pretty cool.
Almost overnight, Office for the iPad became the top selling app in the iTunes store. So it demonstrates the value of the Office brand and the pent up demand for productivity apps on the iPad.
Several in the press have stated that this release was directed at business users. Personally I am not sure about that are here is why...
First - some key pieces are missing. Most importantly is Outlook. Of all of the Microsoft Office Apps, that is the one that the majority of Microsoft desktop users spend their time in. Not separate Mail and Calendar apps. Also missing are Visio, Project and Publisher, three apps that would really be enhanced by touch.
Second - documents are saved to OneDrive - Not SharePoint. Sure OneDrive Pro is available to Office365 subscribers, but a lot of corporations do their collaboration on SharePoint, so not sure they will take to transitioning the document sharing to OneDrive. Similarly a lot of iPad users already use 3rd party doc shares like Box and Office does not support them.
Third - If the goal of releasing Office for iPad was to drive more Office365 subscriptions, especially at the corporate level, then MS needs to add Outlook, Visio, Project, etc.
So let's return to the potential impact of this release on Windows. Like it or not MS has already lost a lot of the BYOD crowd to iOS. From iPhone to iPad, these devices are everywhere and folks are doing more and more of their core work on them. Many of the major ISVs that had previously developed Windows clients now have iOS clients. You can even easily do VDI to iOS if you actually need a Windows Desktop.
Sure you can make all sorts of technical arguments about why this may not be the best approach, but the reality is that corporate IT is many cases is being forced into iOS support simply due to the raw numbers of these devices being brought into and used in the workplace regardless of the corporate laws. In my opinion the iPad is the most disruptive technology since the PC and it is obviously having an affect.
And while there are some Windows tablets starting to show themselves, their market penetration to date has been small.
This is why I mentioned 1992 at the beginning of this article. In my opinion, by releasing Office for iPad along with the upcoming Office for Android, the end of the Windows Era is upon us. It won't happen overnight, but over the next 3 - 5 years, Windows will go from being the dominate personal operating system to an also ran. Sure there will still be a huge installed base - just look at how many XP devices are still out there - but MS in my opinion will not be the dominate player in the Post PC era on the device side.
Those two products were Windows 3.1 and Office 3.0. Yes there were earlier versions of both Windows and Office, but those particular versions are the ones that marked the end of the DOS era as well as the end of three benchmark products.
Prior to 1992, most users were still running MS-DOS and the three big productivity tools of the time WordPerfect, Lotus 1-2-3 and Harvard Graphics.
In the fall of 92, I remember very distinctly the releases of the first "Windows" versions of those three benchmark products. In short they were a disaster. Buggy and not very feature rich those three companies made a terminal mistake, they did not write their code to take advantage of the new world called Windows and opened the door for Office.
Most companies in 1992 were doing some basic trials with Windows 3.1 as a DOS replacement and when those initial Windows versions of WP, Lotus and Harvard failed, started looking at alternatives.
What sealed the deal was Office 4.0 in 1993. It's consistent interface and smart use of Windows features like the use of Clipboard to copy/paste contents from one application to the next, blew away the competition.
By the time Windows NT then 95 came out, the combination of Windows and Office became the defacto standard and WordPerfect, Lotus and Harvard all faded to obscurity.
So flash forward to 2014. On March 27th, Microsoft announced Office for iPad, with the same three applications, Word, Excel and Powerpoint that it had changed the world with back in 1992.
Microsoft has had a relationship with Apple for years and in fact Office was first released for the Mac before Windows and the most popular app still to this day on MacOS is Office for the Mac.
But this release has a different impact and potentially is the beginning of the end for Windows.
For the first time in over 20 years, PC sales are shrinking. Sure there are nearly 300M PCs still sold each year, but that number dropped 9.3% in 2013 and predictions are that that it will drop as much as another 10 - 12% by 2015. On the tablet and phone side however the numbers are exploding. In excess of 1B devices will be sold this year alone. And while MS has released some point solutions like OneNote, their benchmark Office product was no where to be found on the platforms leading this new era.
The question is - how will this align with Microsoft device and services strategy and will users care ? Because MS was slow to release Office, others have stepped in including Apple who is including their productivity tools for free.
I downloaded the Office for iPad apps on my iPad mini and gave them a short spin. Here is what I experienced.
First, the apps look good and do have good document fidelity with their Windows versions. I downloaded some complex Word documents from my PC developed on Office 2013 and they displayed fine in Office for iPad. The key word here is display. Microsoft requires an Office365 license to develop or edit documents.
Second, I immediately was wanting to open an Office 365 Account to be able to edit. And I think that is exactly what Microsoft wants. In fact for existing Office365 customers, they could have immediate access to content on OneDrive Pro and begin to use the apps immediately with no additional licensing costs. Pretty cool.
Almost overnight, Office for the iPad became the top selling app in the iTunes store. So it demonstrates the value of the Office brand and the pent up demand for productivity apps on the iPad.
Several in the press have stated that this release was directed at business users. Personally I am not sure about that are here is why...
First - some key pieces are missing. Most importantly is Outlook. Of all of the Microsoft Office Apps, that is the one that the majority of Microsoft desktop users spend their time in. Not separate Mail and Calendar apps. Also missing are Visio, Project and Publisher, three apps that would really be enhanced by touch.
Second - documents are saved to OneDrive - Not SharePoint. Sure OneDrive Pro is available to Office365 subscribers, but a lot of corporations do their collaboration on SharePoint, so not sure they will take to transitioning the document sharing to OneDrive. Similarly a lot of iPad users already use 3rd party doc shares like Box and Office does not support them.
Third - If the goal of releasing Office for iPad was to drive more Office365 subscriptions, especially at the corporate level, then MS needs to add Outlook, Visio, Project, etc.
So let's return to the potential impact of this release on Windows. Like it or not MS has already lost a lot of the BYOD crowd to iOS. From iPhone to iPad, these devices are everywhere and folks are doing more and more of their core work on them. Many of the major ISVs that had previously developed Windows clients now have iOS clients. You can even easily do VDI to iOS if you actually need a Windows Desktop.
Sure you can make all sorts of technical arguments about why this may not be the best approach, but the reality is that corporate IT is many cases is being forced into iOS support simply due to the raw numbers of these devices being brought into and used in the workplace regardless of the corporate laws. In my opinion the iPad is the most disruptive technology since the PC and it is obviously having an affect.
And while there are some Windows tablets starting to show themselves, their market penetration to date has been small.
This is why I mentioned 1992 at the beginning of this article. In my opinion, by releasing Office for iPad along with the upcoming Office for Android, the end of the Windows Era is upon us. It won't happen overnight, but over the next 3 - 5 years, Windows will go from being the dominate personal operating system to an also ran. Sure there will still be a huge installed base - just look at how many XP devices are still out there - but MS in my opinion will not be the dominate player in the Post PC era on the device side.
Comments
Post a Comment