Windows Phone - Fading in Obscurity - Part II
So a couple of weeks back I posted my thoughts around the fate of Windows Phone.
So there are a few updates to report..
Microsoft did address one of the areas I mentioned as a area to improve and that was branding. MS announced that going forward the Windows Phones developed by MS will be called Microsoft Lumia. So much like the Surface line - at least now there will be a true MS branded phone.
But then MS turns around and stumbles badly. It was reported that the new 730/735 phones announced at IFA will be delayed in the US until early 2015. So that means that MS will only have 1 new phone the 830 at 1 carrier - AT&T for the holidays. While the 635 is also "new" it was released in July - so while there will be some uptake it will mostly be from 520/521 owners looking to upgrade. So I fully expect to hear how bad WP sales are in Q4 and a drop in US market share.
This is really disappointing to hear. While MS states they are being "patient" with their approach to WP, I can't see how the marketplace can continue to support this model.
I can see an approach with MS around Windows 10 and the one platform, one store model, but that may also mean a completely new phone platform and the potential that what happened with the WP 7.x to 8.x transition will happen to the WP 8.x to 10 transition. Meaning, MS will establish a new hardware profile to support WP 10 and it won't support any of the current devices. This level of customer alienation will simply drive folks away from WP. Additionally while MS announced a number of new "partners" in the WP space - to be honest - most are no names that will never see the US market.
What is also a possibility is that MS will try to take the same approach with Lumia that they've done with Surface and create 1 maybe 2 models only. The question will then be - what carriers will it support. And maybe more importantly - what carriers will want to support a Microsoft Lumia WP10 device?
Regardless if any of the above hardware platforms becomes reality - MS has still not addressed the next two major concerns.
There is still very limited traction within the development community. The vast majority of new apps are still being developed only for iOS and Android and few if any of the well established apps feel the need to develop a WP version. This is the challenge of being a distant 3rd in market share.
The MS store experience for both apps and media (music and video) is still crap on both Windows and WP. Either MS simply doesn't get it or can't execute. Personally I believe it is a bit of both.
While I have always felt that the MS subscription model for Music introduced with Zune was excellent, the reality is that the user experience had been going backwards now for 3 years. In addition MS has reduced the number of devices that are supported on an annual subscription and made it harder to manage.
Bottom line - While MS did address one issue - branding, MS continues to fail to execute with models, carrier diversity, apps and store. Even if they come up with a shinny new "Surface" class of phone in 2015 with WP10 it will be too little too late and I think by this time next year I will writing about the end of WP.
So there are a few updates to report..
Microsoft did address one of the areas I mentioned as a area to improve and that was branding. MS announced that going forward the Windows Phones developed by MS will be called Microsoft Lumia. So much like the Surface line - at least now there will be a true MS branded phone.
But then MS turns around and stumbles badly. It was reported that the new 730/735 phones announced at IFA will be delayed in the US until early 2015. So that means that MS will only have 1 new phone the 830 at 1 carrier - AT&T for the holidays. While the 635 is also "new" it was released in July - so while there will be some uptake it will mostly be from 520/521 owners looking to upgrade. So I fully expect to hear how bad WP sales are in Q4 and a drop in US market share.
This is really disappointing to hear. While MS states they are being "patient" with their approach to WP, I can't see how the marketplace can continue to support this model.
I can see an approach with MS around Windows 10 and the one platform, one store model, but that may also mean a completely new phone platform and the potential that what happened with the WP 7.x to 8.x transition will happen to the WP 8.x to 10 transition. Meaning, MS will establish a new hardware profile to support WP 10 and it won't support any of the current devices. This level of customer alienation will simply drive folks away from WP. Additionally while MS announced a number of new "partners" in the WP space - to be honest - most are no names that will never see the US market.
What is also a possibility is that MS will try to take the same approach with Lumia that they've done with Surface and create 1 maybe 2 models only. The question will then be - what carriers will it support. And maybe more importantly - what carriers will want to support a Microsoft Lumia WP10 device?
Regardless if any of the above hardware platforms becomes reality - MS has still not addressed the next two major concerns.
There is still very limited traction within the development community. The vast majority of new apps are still being developed only for iOS and Android and few if any of the well established apps feel the need to develop a WP version. This is the challenge of being a distant 3rd in market share.
The MS store experience for both apps and media (music and video) is still crap on both Windows and WP. Either MS simply doesn't get it or can't execute. Personally I believe it is a bit of both.
While I have always felt that the MS subscription model for Music introduced with Zune was excellent, the reality is that the user experience had been going backwards now for 3 years. In addition MS has reduced the number of devices that are supported on an annual subscription and made it harder to manage.
Bottom line - While MS did address one issue - branding, MS continues to fail to execute with models, carrier diversity, apps and store. Even if they come up with a shinny new "Surface" class of phone in 2015 with WP10 it will be too little too late and I think by this time next year I will writing about the end of WP.
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