Lumia Phone - What is MS doing ?
On November 11th, MS is going to announce their first Lumia Phone. The preliminary indications are that this will be a Dual-SIM phone with a lower end SnapDragon 400 Processor with 1280 x 720 screen, 1Gb RAM and 8Gb storage + SD expansion.
So who is this phone for ? Certainly not the US market. The US carriers really don't like Dual-SIM phones and while you can go buy some from companies like BLU - they are rare.
Also why would MS release yet another low end phone. This year the 630/635, 735 and 830 were released. The 635 - of which I own 2 - where the direct upgrade path for the 520/521. The 735 while a nice phone is not available on any carrier in the US and may only be available on Verizon sometime in early 2015 and the 830 from the initial reviews appears to be a very overpriced device with relatively unimpressive specs and only available from AT&T.
So my belief here is that this phone will be an EU or Asian phone and will probably never see the light of day on the US. Or if it does will be sold in a non-contract version through the lower end providers.
In my opinion MS is completely missing the boat here. While I certainly understand their desire to move forward with an MS branded device I believe this just dilutes the market and doesn't provide any real progression of the platform.
The higher end Nokia devices, the 920/925/930/1020 & 1520 have no real replacement on the horizon. And that's a problem. Several devices are at or near 2 years of age, the typical window for replacement.
In the US MS has only one new offering for these users on one carrier the 830 on AT&T or nothing. And from the initial reviews of the 830 - it is no were near the capabilities or specifications of those older devices. So why would anyone buy it - especially at $450.
So I think there are two possible paths that MS could take.
1. If MS is going to stay at the low to mid range of the market - then I think they need to create 3 phones - a $100, $200 and $300 offering, make them available for all carriers and call it a day.
2. MS could create a "Surface" like showcase Lumia device - again making it
available on all carriers and then see if they can regain traction with partners to build off that.
The key here is all carriers. MS really missed out on gaining market share in my opinion by continuing the legacy carrier exclusivity model. They need to shed that as quickly as they can. But it already may be too late. It is obvious that MS has pissed off Verizon to the point where the largest carrier in the US doesn't really care if they sell WP or not.
Back to the paths. MS may a do little of both. So with the Nov 11th announcement they do a part of path 1 - another entry level phone. Not sure what the price will be but I bet around $250 - $300.
They may also try and do path 2 aligned with the WP10 OS release. But I have two big concerns here. First is that any WP 8 user today will NOT have a upgrade path to WP10 - so they would be forced to buy the new device. Second is that this new device (if they actually make it) maybe a year off.
If I'm correct - MS is making some big assumptions here. First is that the market will really care about another low end phone. Since this is Dual-SIM and obviously NOT focused on the US market will the MS brand be enough to generate interest. Second is will the current US WP base wait nearly a year for a new high end WP and be willing to spend Apple like prices for it.
MS certainly has their work cut out for them and based on their execution with WP to date, I don't see them really gaining much traction. In the mean time Apple outsells them 14:1 at higher price points and margins.
So who is this phone for ? Certainly not the US market. The US carriers really don't like Dual-SIM phones and while you can go buy some from companies like BLU - they are rare.
Also why would MS release yet another low end phone. This year the 630/635, 735 and 830 were released. The 635 - of which I own 2 - where the direct upgrade path for the 520/521. The 735 while a nice phone is not available on any carrier in the US and may only be available on Verizon sometime in early 2015 and the 830 from the initial reviews appears to be a very overpriced device with relatively unimpressive specs and only available from AT&T.
So my belief here is that this phone will be an EU or Asian phone and will probably never see the light of day on the US. Or if it does will be sold in a non-contract version through the lower end providers.
In my opinion MS is completely missing the boat here. While I certainly understand their desire to move forward with an MS branded device I believe this just dilutes the market and doesn't provide any real progression of the platform.
The higher end Nokia devices, the 920/925/930/1020 & 1520 have no real replacement on the horizon. And that's a problem. Several devices are at or near 2 years of age, the typical window for replacement.
In the US MS has only one new offering for these users on one carrier the 830 on AT&T or nothing. And from the initial reviews of the 830 - it is no were near the capabilities or specifications of those older devices. So why would anyone buy it - especially at $450.
So I think there are two possible paths that MS could take.
1. If MS is going to stay at the low to mid range of the market - then I think they need to create 3 phones - a $100, $200 and $300 offering, make them available for all carriers and call it a day.
2. MS could create a "Surface" like showcase Lumia device - again making it
available on all carriers and then see if they can regain traction with partners to build off that.
The key here is all carriers. MS really missed out on gaining market share in my opinion by continuing the legacy carrier exclusivity model. They need to shed that as quickly as they can. But it already may be too late. It is obvious that MS has pissed off Verizon to the point where the largest carrier in the US doesn't really care if they sell WP or not.
Back to the paths. MS may a do little of both. So with the Nov 11th announcement they do a part of path 1 - another entry level phone. Not sure what the price will be but I bet around $250 - $300.
They may also try and do path 2 aligned with the WP10 OS release. But I have two big concerns here. First is that any WP 8 user today will NOT have a upgrade path to WP10 - so they would be forced to buy the new device. Second is that this new device (if they actually make it) maybe a year off.
If I'm correct - MS is making some big assumptions here. First is that the market will really care about another low end phone. Since this is Dual-SIM and obviously NOT focused on the US market will the MS brand be enough to generate interest. Second is will the current US WP base wait nearly a year for a new high end WP and be willing to spend Apple like prices for it.
MS certainly has their work cut out for them and based on their execution with WP to date, I don't see them really gaining much traction. In the mean time Apple outsells them 14:1 at higher price points and margins.
Comments
Post a Comment