PC & Smartphones both saw declines in 2018
Its been a while since I've posted anything in regards to the Smartphone and PC markets - so here's how we finished up 2018.
Smartphones have continued their decline as Q4 showed the 5th consecutive quarterly decline in sales. Q4 2018 ended up at 375.4M units according the IDC Mobile Tracker down some 4.9% from 2017's 394.6M units.
For all of 2018 Smartphone sales were slightly over 1.404B units a 4.1% decline from 2017's 1.465B units. The top five OEMS are Samsung, Apple, Huawei, Oppo and Xaiomi.
On the PC side Q4 2018 saw a decline of 4.3% to 68.6M units vs 2017's 71.7M units and for all of 2018 - PC sales saw their 7th consecutive year of unit sales decline to just 259.3M units vs 262.6M units in 2017 according to Gartner - a 1.3% decline. The consolidation in this market continues as the big three Lenovo, Dell and HP now sell some 63% of all PCs.
And while MS has seen increasing unit sales of their Surface line in recent years - in the US MS holds the 5th spot in market with a 3.3% market share at 472K units sold - a 12.9% decline in Q4. That's about 25% of the 4th place Apple's share of 12.4% share and 1.76M units sold which was a 2.1% decline.
Smartphones still outsell PCs at a 5.4:1 ratio worldwide - but that is a decline from the 6+ ratio of a couple years ago.
So regardless of the advances in areas like touch, 2-in-1 convertibles, 4K screens, and Windows 10 - there are really no major catalysts to boost PC sales - the market now appears to effectively be stagnant with sales reflecting refresh cycles.
On the smartphone side in 2018 we saw Huawei briefly overtake Apple for #2 worldwide and for 2018 the two OEMS are neck and neck at roughly 206 - 208M units sold each.
Apple saw some backlash from their price increases for the latest iPhone releases and as I've commented in other posts are slowly painting themselves into a corner. They experienced a 11.5% year over year sales drop in Q4 and a 3.2% decline for all of 2018. I expect Huawei to overtake Apple again and probably stay #2.
While not in the top 5 list - I'm keeping my eye on HMD Global and their Nokia branded devices. They are filling the sub $400 market with a lot of excellent devices which is where the majority of the market buys. I own two Nokia 6.1s that I purchased in the $200 range and they have been excellent.
I think we've reached somewhat of a tipping point on the high-end of the mobile market - for years as power, screens, cameras, etc improved - folks were willing to pay more - now they aren't. Plus they are keeping their phones longer.
So the challenge for the Apple's & Samsung's of the world is - How do we raise the bar on features but keep the price somewhat the same and still make money doing so. The growth in the world wide market is in the $250 - $400 space and so whoever dominates there will end up #1.
I don't expect 5G to be a big catalyst in 2019 - maybe 2020 or even 2021 before we start to see enough devices and infrastructure. And even the latest trend in foldables may be a niche. The big challenge is size, weight and battery life. I do expect to see continued movement towards eSIM and am looking forward to the day when provisioning a phone on any providers network is just a touch away..
All analysts are forecasting a soft 2019 as well for both Smartphones and PCs. We could see another 4% or more drop in both markets. Obviously time will tell where we actually end up - but there is nothing I see that will reverse the current downward trends.
Smartphones have continued their decline as Q4 showed the 5th consecutive quarterly decline in sales. Q4 2018 ended up at 375.4M units according the IDC Mobile Tracker down some 4.9% from 2017's 394.6M units.
For all of 2018 Smartphone sales were slightly over 1.404B units a 4.1% decline from 2017's 1.465B units. The top five OEMS are Samsung, Apple, Huawei, Oppo and Xaiomi.
On the PC side Q4 2018 saw a decline of 4.3% to 68.6M units vs 2017's 71.7M units and for all of 2018 - PC sales saw their 7th consecutive year of unit sales decline to just 259.3M units vs 262.6M units in 2017 according to Gartner - a 1.3% decline. The consolidation in this market continues as the big three Lenovo, Dell and HP now sell some 63% of all PCs.
And while MS has seen increasing unit sales of their Surface line in recent years - in the US MS holds the 5th spot in market with a 3.3% market share at 472K units sold - a 12.9% decline in Q4. That's about 25% of the 4th place Apple's share of 12.4% share and 1.76M units sold which was a 2.1% decline.
Smartphones still outsell PCs at a 5.4:1 ratio worldwide - but that is a decline from the 6+ ratio of a couple years ago.
So regardless of the advances in areas like touch, 2-in-1 convertibles, 4K screens, and Windows 10 - there are really no major catalysts to boost PC sales - the market now appears to effectively be stagnant with sales reflecting refresh cycles.
On the smartphone side in 2018 we saw Huawei briefly overtake Apple for #2 worldwide and for 2018 the two OEMS are neck and neck at roughly 206 - 208M units sold each.
Apple saw some backlash from their price increases for the latest iPhone releases and as I've commented in other posts are slowly painting themselves into a corner. They experienced a 11.5% year over year sales drop in Q4 and a 3.2% decline for all of 2018. I expect Huawei to overtake Apple again and probably stay #2.
While not in the top 5 list - I'm keeping my eye on HMD Global and their Nokia branded devices. They are filling the sub $400 market with a lot of excellent devices which is where the majority of the market buys. I own two Nokia 6.1s that I purchased in the $200 range and they have been excellent.
I think we've reached somewhat of a tipping point on the high-end of the mobile market - for years as power, screens, cameras, etc improved - folks were willing to pay more - now they aren't. Plus they are keeping their phones longer.
So the challenge for the Apple's & Samsung's of the world is - How do we raise the bar on features but keep the price somewhat the same and still make money doing so. The growth in the world wide market is in the $250 - $400 space and so whoever dominates there will end up #1.
I don't expect 5G to be a big catalyst in 2019 - maybe 2020 or even 2021 before we start to see enough devices and infrastructure. And even the latest trend in foldables may be a niche. The big challenge is size, weight and battery life. I do expect to see continued movement towards eSIM and am looking forward to the day when provisioning a phone on any providers network is just a touch away..
All analysts are forecasting a soft 2019 as well for both Smartphones and PCs. We could see another 4% or more drop in both markets. Obviously time will tell where we actually end up - but there is nothing I see that will reverse the current downward trends.
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