Technology Predictions for 2015 - Part I
Being Jan 1 - I'll try my hand at some technology predictions for 2015.
Let start with end-user computing - desktop, laptop and tablet. On the hardware front, I see three trends...
First is the expansion of ultra-low cost devices. There continues to be a huge push downwards on the price of devices driven by Chromebooks. There appears to be a target price of $199 for a entry laptop in the 11 - 12" range. These are by no means powerful devices, but with the expansion of cloud based services from Google and MS, the number of these good enough devices will explode in 2015.
Second will be the opposite end of the spectrum - more ultrabook style devices for the corporate world. They come in all sorts of traditional clamshell or hybrid designs and 4K will start to show up more and more in displays. Almost all of these will come with M.2 SSD drives, and 8 - 12 hour battery. And will fit into that $800 - $1200 range.
Finally some of the new Intel Real Sense technologies will start to sprinkle in. RealSense utilizes front facing camera technology to provide gesture control and 3D camera. It will be interesting to see who puts this out there first. My guess will be Asus - followed closely by Lenovo.
On the software front, Windows 10 will be the biggest change for 2015. As of today MS is saying fall of 2015, but I believe this may slip - potentially to 2016. MS has a lot to address with Windows 10 and also plans to have a new version of Office as well, especially a touch edition for Windows. Windows 8/8.1 has been a disaster for MS and they really need a good quality release that will support the next round of corporate upgrades. MS really needs to avoid the whole XP situation again.
Yes Apple will release Yosemite and there will be the traditional Linux distro updates, but I don't expect anything as impactful as Windows 10. Let's face it for all the press regarding the growth of Apple in the corporate world - Apple barely maintains a 10% market share. I don't expect that to change.
Now let's switch to Mobile. So phones, phablets, etc. For 2015, Android will continue to dominate, it has tremendous hardware vendor support across a wide range of price points. Apple will continue to follow it's annual refresh - so expect the iPhone 6S and 6S Plus in September or October. Apple had a tremendous 4th Qtr and the Apple user base obviously was wanting a larger size. I expect to see Apple actually gain some additional share.
The question mark here is Microsoft. As much as I like Windows Phone it is still struggling in the marketplace. With the Windows Phone 10 release being coordinated with Windows 10 - I do predict that MS will release a reference design device much like Surface. The question will be how willing the carriers will be to support it. Today many of the carriers provide a token selection of Windows Phones and they often have to heavily discount them to sell.
I think Windows Phone will still be around by the end of 2015 - But MS really has to hit a home run with not only the Windows Phone 10 OS, but also a market leading device to run it. Otherwise I'm not very optimistic about Windows Phone future much beyond that.
While there are some interesting side notes such as Blackberry classic and the new Alcatel OneTouch that can run WP or Android, I don't expect either of these devices to have a huge market impact.
On the software side of Mobile - expect the typical evolutionary upgrades to iOS, and Android through the year. As I stated earlier - WP 10 will be the question mark - since it will arrive late in the year it may not have the impact that MS expects. Especially if MS does not put out a state of the art phone to run it.
Let start with end-user computing - desktop, laptop and tablet. On the hardware front, I see three trends...
First is the expansion of ultra-low cost devices. There continues to be a huge push downwards on the price of devices driven by Chromebooks. There appears to be a target price of $199 for a entry laptop in the 11 - 12" range. These are by no means powerful devices, but with the expansion of cloud based services from Google and MS, the number of these good enough devices will explode in 2015.
Second will be the opposite end of the spectrum - more ultrabook style devices for the corporate world. They come in all sorts of traditional clamshell or hybrid designs and 4K will start to show up more and more in displays. Almost all of these will come with M.2 SSD drives, and 8 - 12 hour battery. And will fit into that $800 - $1200 range.
Finally some of the new Intel Real Sense technologies will start to sprinkle in. RealSense utilizes front facing camera technology to provide gesture control and 3D camera. It will be interesting to see who puts this out there first. My guess will be Asus - followed closely by Lenovo.
On the software front, Windows 10 will be the biggest change for 2015. As of today MS is saying fall of 2015, but I believe this may slip - potentially to 2016. MS has a lot to address with Windows 10 and also plans to have a new version of Office as well, especially a touch edition for Windows. Windows 8/8.1 has been a disaster for MS and they really need a good quality release that will support the next round of corporate upgrades. MS really needs to avoid the whole XP situation again.
Yes Apple will release Yosemite and there will be the traditional Linux distro updates, but I don't expect anything as impactful as Windows 10. Let's face it for all the press regarding the growth of Apple in the corporate world - Apple barely maintains a 10% market share. I don't expect that to change.
Now let's switch to Mobile. So phones, phablets, etc. For 2015, Android will continue to dominate, it has tremendous hardware vendor support across a wide range of price points. Apple will continue to follow it's annual refresh - so expect the iPhone 6S and 6S Plus in September or October. Apple had a tremendous 4th Qtr and the Apple user base obviously was wanting a larger size. I expect to see Apple actually gain some additional share.
The question mark here is Microsoft. As much as I like Windows Phone it is still struggling in the marketplace. With the Windows Phone 10 release being coordinated with Windows 10 - I do predict that MS will release a reference design device much like Surface. The question will be how willing the carriers will be to support it. Today many of the carriers provide a token selection of Windows Phones and they often have to heavily discount them to sell.
I think Windows Phone will still be around by the end of 2015 - But MS really has to hit a home run with not only the Windows Phone 10 OS, but also a market leading device to run it. Otherwise I'm not very optimistic about Windows Phone future much beyond that.
While there are some interesting side notes such as Blackberry classic and the new Alcatel OneTouch that can run WP or Android, I don't expect either of these devices to have a huge market impact.
On the software side of Mobile - expect the typical evolutionary upgrades to iOS, and Android through the year. As I stated earlier - WP 10 will be the question mark - since it will arrive late in the year it may not have the impact that MS expects. Especially if MS does not put out a state of the art phone to run it.
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