Technology Predictions for 2015 - Part II
In my last post I discussed my predictions for 2015 in the end user computing and mobile spaces. Now let's switch to the corporate side....
On the server side of things, two big changes...
First is the introduction of the newest generation of Intel Processors with DDR4 RAM and Haswell architecture. This continues the evolution of the server to be a virtualization platform. You see much higher CPU Core density - moving from 12 - 14 to 18 - 20 / CPU and much higher memory capacity. Start thinking 1.5TB of RAM in a 2U server. But at much higher cost. DDR4 ram is impressive with it's improved speed and capacity but is very expensive - so are the high core count processors. So while you can certainly support more VMs per server - the servers will be more expensive. This trend will continue through 2015 and in to 2016. You'll buy fewer server, but pay more for them.
Second is the dramatic change in server storage in both capacity and performance. 6TB and 8TB drives will be readily available in 2015, so it will be very easy in a 2U server to approach 100TB of storage. Next will be explosion is various SSD options for either primary storage or IOPS Improvement. My company - Dell for example has introduced 1.8" SSDs that have capacity of up to 960GB and a single server can support up to 18 of these. So suddenly you'll be able to get 100K or more IOPS in a 2U server - without a specialized all flash array. This change alone is going to put tremendous pressure on the storage players.
This brings me to next area - converged appliances. From VMware's vSAN and EVO:Rail to Nutanix, Sanplivity and others - there is going to be a an explosion of these appliances in 2015. They utilize the processor, ram and storage combinations I described above along with bundle software to provide an all inclusive platform for VDI, Database, Exchange, etc. They are very fast to implement can scale to support almost any workload and organization. If you've been a traditional IT shop using standalone servers and a SAN for centralized storage - take a serious look at these devices.
On the Storage front, the trend of Tiered storage and All Flash Arrays will continue. Utilizing the same technologies I described for servers above with 6TB & 8TB drives, Flash and software - the focus will be on improved IOPS and placing data on the right tier of storage for the best combination of performance and capacity. With that said, the real question here it do you still need a SAN ?
The days of the large multi-cabinet storage array are dead. I recommend that you stop investing there.
On the networking front - three trends for 2015. First is the continued expansion of Software Defined Networking (SDN). Driven by the continuing demands of virtualization, traditional networking approaches will be challenged. Networking will be virtualized just as compute was and the OS and Hypervisor players - VMware, Microsoft and Linux will become more predominate in these areas.
The second trend will be the continued expansion and availability of "commodity" switches. A commodity switch is one that has no operating system - just power supplies and ports. You'll load your own OS on it - and that could be Windows Server or VMware ESX or KVM and then a pieces of networking software like Cumulus or BigSwitch or even NSX.
Finally will be speed - 40GB will start to be come the norm. Today many switches support 40GB uplinks, but soon you'll see 40Gb NICs that will allow those extremely dense compute engines to communicate to the switches over 40GB.
The one trend I do NOT see is the expansion of "coverged" networking. Converged networking provides the capability of mixing traditional ethernet with fibre channel networking over the same infrastructure. With the movement towards converged computing I described above - there will be less and less dependence on SAN infrastructures. Unless there is the need to access centralized peta-byte based storage - the SAN may slowly fade to black over the remainder of the decade.
This brings us to company trends. We saw some pretty dramatic industry changes in the last year or so. I think my own company Dell kind of led the way going private, but then there was break-ups like what happened with HP and sell-offs like IBM selling their x86 server line to Lenovo.
For 2015 - the biggest change I see coming is the split-up or sell-off of Cisco. Cisco's growth model over the last 15 years was acquisition of various technologies, from TV, to SAN to Consumer networking. They've already sold off Linksys, and recently sold their share of VCE to EMC. Over the last 6 - 7 years the number of switches that you need to buy have been reduced. Yes the per port price went up for 10Gb and 40Gb - but you need less of them. And while Cisco did expand into the server market with UCS - they don't have a storage story and have to rely on NetApp or EMC. Their own attempts at storage (Whiptail) - failed miserably with the product being halted.
The other potential take-over target is EMC. While over the years EMC has diversified from being a pure storage player - and own piece of VMware and Pivotal they do not have a compute story and and so EMC will not have a good converged story. EMC is under continuing pressure from stakeholders to do something - especially with VMware. Also the relationship with Cisco has been strained with the acquisition of Nicira which became NSX. A lot of rumors that IBM may be a potential buyer - but not sure that will go.
I expect no real changes with Microsoft, Apple or Google. MS obviously has a critical update cycle coming with Windows 10 - but it happens late in the year. There is also a upgrade cycle for Windows Server 2003, but I think it will be much like XP, some folks will run to try and get updated, others will get there when they can.
The bigger story in corporate IT - will be the continuing expansion of Open Source projects in the enterprise. From Hadoop to Openstack and object stores like Ceph - more and more new application projects are utilizing these components. It is what I call the Google effect.
Google had to reinvent many data center capabilities to support their massive scale, those inventions are now making their way into the mainstream of corporate IT - via new startups formed by ex-Google folks. Nutanix is a perfect example of this. These solutions aren't for everyone, but over the next 5 years - will change the way Corp IT works.
So will visit this in Dec and see how this panned out.
On the server side of things, two big changes...
First is the introduction of the newest generation of Intel Processors with DDR4 RAM and Haswell architecture. This continues the evolution of the server to be a virtualization platform. You see much higher CPU Core density - moving from 12 - 14 to 18 - 20 / CPU and much higher memory capacity. Start thinking 1.5TB of RAM in a 2U server. But at much higher cost. DDR4 ram is impressive with it's improved speed and capacity but is very expensive - so are the high core count processors. So while you can certainly support more VMs per server - the servers will be more expensive. This trend will continue through 2015 and in to 2016. You'll buy fewer server, but pay more for them.
Second is the dramatic change in server storage in both capacity and performance. 6TB and 8TB drives will be readily available in 2015, so it will be very easy in a 2U server to approach 100TB of storage. Next will be explosion is various SSD options for either primary storage or IOPS Improvement. My company - Dell for example has introduced 1.8" SSDs that have capacity of up to 960GB and a single server can support up to 18 of these. So suddenly you'll be able to get 100K or more IOPS in a 2U server - without a specialized all flash array. This change alone is going to put tremendous pressure on the storage players.
This brings me to next area - converged appliances. From VMware's vSAN and EVO:Rail to Nutanix, Sanplivity and others - there is going to be a an explosion of these appliances in 2015. They utilize the processor, ram and storage combinations I described above along with bundle software to provide an all inclusive platform for VDI, Database, Exchange, etc. They are very fast to implement can scale to support almost any workload and organization. If you've been a traditional IT shop using standalone servers and a SAN for centralized storage - take a serious look at these devices.
On the Storage front, the trend of Tiered storage and All Flash Arrays will continue. Utilizing the same technologies I described for servers above with 6TB & 8TB drives, Flash and software - the focus will be on improved IOPS and placing data on the right tier of storage for the best combination of performance and capacity. With that said, the real question here it do you still need a SAN ?
The days of the large multi-cabinet storage array are dead. I recommend that you stop investing there.
On the networking front - three trends for 2015. First is the continued expansion of Software Defined Networking (SDN). Driven by the continuing demands of virtualization, traditional networking approaches will be challenged. Networking will be virtualized just as compute was and the OS and Hypervisor players - VMware, Microsoft and Linux will become more predominate in these areas.
The second trend will be the continued expansion and availability of "commodity" switches. A commodity switch is one that has no operating system - just power supplies and ports. You'll load your own OS on it - and that could be Windows Server or VMware ESX or KVM and then a pieces of networking software like Cumulus or BigSwitch or even NSX.
Finally will be speed - 40GB will start to be come the norm. Today many switches support 40GB uplinks, but soon you'll see 40Gb NICs that will allow those extremely dense compute engines to communicate to the switches over 40GB.
The one trend I do NOT see is the expansion of "coverged" networking. Converged networking provides the capability of mixing traditional ethernet with fibre channel networking over the same infrastructure. With the movement towards converged computing I described above - there will be less and less dependence on SAN infrastructures. Unless there is the need to access centralized peta-byte based storage - the SAN may slowly fade to black over the remainder of the decade.
This brings us to company trends. We saw some pretty dramatic industry changes in the last year or so. I think my own company Dell kind of led the way going private, but then there was break-ups like what happened with HP and sell-offs like IBM selling their x86 server line to Lenovo.
For 2015 - the biggest change I see coming is the split-up or sell-off of Cisco. Cisco's growth model over the last 15 years was acquisition of various technologies, from TV, to SAN to Consumer networking. They've already sold off Linksys, and recently sold their share of VCE to EMC. Over the last 6 - 7 years the number of switches that you need to buy have been reduced. Yes the per port price went up for 10Gb and 40Gb - but you need less of them. And while Cisco did expand into the server market with UCS - they don't have a storage story and have to rely on NetApp or EMC. Their own attempts at storage (Whiptail) - failed miserably with the product being halted.
The other potential take-over target is EMC. While over the years EMC has diversified from being a pure storage player - and own piece of VMware and Pivotal they do not have a compute story and and so EMC will not have a good converged story. EMC is under continuing pressure from stakeholders to do something - especially with VMware. Also the relationship with Cisco has been strained with the acquisition of Nicira which became NSX. A lot of rumors that IBM may be a potential buyer - but not sure that will go.
I expect no real changes with Microsoft, Apple or Google. MS obviously has a critical update cycle coming with Windows 10 - but it happens late in the year. There is also a upgrade cycle for Windows Server 2003, but I think it will be much like XP, some folks will run to try and get updated, others will get there when they can.
The bigger story in corporate IT - will be the continuing expansion of Open Source projects in the enterprise. From Hadoop to Openstack and object stores like Ceph - more and more new application projects are utilizing these components. It is what I call the Google effect.
Google had to reinvent many data center capabilities to support their massive scale, those inventions are now making their way into the mainstream of corporate IT - via new startups formed by ex-Google folks. Nutanix is a perfect example of this. These solutions aren't for everyone, but over the next 5 years - will change the way Corp IT works.
So will visit this in Dec and see how this panned out.
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