Lumia 950/950XL Release - the end of an era
Today, Nov 16, 2015 - MS made the new Lumia 950XL available for pre-order on it's Microsoft Store site for $649 unlocked. MS is running a special bundle where they are providing the Display Dock for free "while supplies last".
The slightly smaller Lumia 950 is available for pre-order Nov 17 on AT&T and available in stores on Nov 20. The price is $549 and AT&T is selling the Display Dock for $99. MS states the 950 will be available in their stores on Nov 25.
To me the 950/950XL marks the end of the Lumia line.
For those who remember the first Lumia that came from MS's partnership with Nokia was the 800, released in Sept of 2011, the 710 followed shortly there after in Jan of 2012. In 2012 the 610/510 & 900 also came out.
What was interesting is that these devices started at the Windows Phone 7.5 release. Prior to that - the Windows 7 lead products were the HTC 7 and Dell's doomed Venue Pro. Even Samsung has a Windows 7 phone before switching to Android.
In conjunction with Windows Phone 8 release in 2013 was the 2x series, with the 520 becoming the most widely sold and by far the largest seller of all Lumia phones. There was also the 620/720/820 and 920 along with the infamous 1020 and 1520 phablet.
In 2014 with the release of Windows Phone 8.1 came the 3x series, the 630/635 being the big sellers along with the 930, 830 and the 735.
In 2015, the 4x series specifically the 640/640XL - also running WP 8.1 were released in March, mostly in response to the 630/635 buyers who wanted a flash camera.
Now - the last of the Lumia phones - the 950/950XL and 550 are being launched as Windows 10 Mobile devices.
So why do I say these are the last ?
Very simply is that the 0,1,2 and 3 series were developed by Nokia for Microsoft. The 4 and now 5 series devices were developed by the remnants of the Nokia folks now working for MS after the acquisition of Nokia's Device Division by Microsoft in 2014. There will not be another Nokia influenced device from Microsoft.
So what's next....
Over it's history, MS has developed versions of Windows for Non-Intel processors - but the reality is they've never really done well. In fact at one time Windows NT supported 4 different processor platforms from Intel, MIPS, DEC - Alpha and PowerPC. Similarly with Windows CE - the precursor to Windows Phone OS, several CPU platforms were supported.
But at the end of the day, MS feels most comfortable developing Windows with their longest partner Intel. The same will be true now for phones.
The expectation is that whatever brand the next Microsoft phone is called it most likely will be based on an Intel processor. Probably some derivative of the Atom X3/X5/X7 series processors.
By making this fundamental platform change, MS solves a development challenge. Specifically it allows the core Windows 10 code base to run without tweaks that allow it to run on Qualcomm processors. It also allows Intel features that are readily available on tablets - like WiDi, RealSense, etc., to be fully utilized by Windows 10, just like they are with the Surface line...
There are some rumors that these new Intel based Microsoft phones will be available as soon as 1H 2016 and that folks internal to MS are stating that these new devices will be the "real" Windows 10 phones.
If the rumors are true I expect the release of these new devices to coordinate with the Windows 10 Redstone branch release. In fact I believe these new devices may carry the Surface line name. So finally the Surface Phone.
That leaves the Lumia 950/950XL/550 as kind of a lame duck. MS needed to come out with something that would satisfy all the 2 & 3 series buyers who are well past their 2 year renewal and looking for a refresh. So the 920/1020/1520 users. Also there are several corporate contracts for the 920.
The 550 is targeted at the 630/635/640 folks.
MS needed something that could run Windows 10 Mobile well while they continued to work on their Intel based phone.
MS has never sold more than 1.4M Lumia devices in the US during any one fiscal quarter and I expect the same from the 950/950XL.
The Lumia enthusiasts will be the buyers, and I expect 500K - 750K units to be sold in the US during the holidays. After that I expect sales and prices to drop like a rock.
I know I will not be one of those buyers. In my household we have Windows Phone, iPhone and Android. I know that if I were in the market for a $650 phone - it would NOT be a Lumia 950XL.
As nice as the 950/950XL device specifications are, the overall experience of Windows Phone today just does not justify the premium price.
The slightly smaller Lumia 950 is available for pre-order Nov 17 on AT&T and available in stores on Nov 20. The price is $549 and AT&T is selling the Display Dock for $99. MS states the 950 will be available in their stores on Nov 25.
To me the 950/950XL marks the end of the Lumia line.
For those who remember the first Lumia that came from MS's partnership with Nokia was the 800, released in Sept of 2011, the 710 followed shortly there after in Jan of 2012. In 2012 the 610/510 & 900 also came out.
What was interesting is that these devices started at the Windows Phone 7.5 release. Prior to that - the Windows 7 lead products were the HTC 7 and Dell's doomed Venue Pro. Even Samsung has a Windows 7 phone before switching to Android.
In conjunction with Windows Phone 8 release in 2013 was the 2x series, with the 520 becoming the most widely sold and by far the largest seller of all Lumia phones. There was also the 620/720/820 and 920 along with the infamous 1020 and 1520 phablet.
In 2014 with the release of Windows Phone 8.1 came the 3x series, the 630/635 being the big sellers along with the 930, 830 and the 735.
In 2015, the 4x series specifically the 640/640XL - also running WP 8.1 were released in March, mostly in response to the 630/635 buyers who wanted a flash camera.
Now - the last of the Lumia phones - the 950/950XL and 550 are being launched as Windows 10 Mobile devices.
So why do I say these are the last ?
Very simply is that the 0,1,2 and 3 series were developed by Nokia for Microsoft. The 4 and now 5 series devices were developed by the remnants of the Nokia folks now working for MS after the acquisition of Nokia's Device Division by Microsoft in 2014. There will not be another Nokia influenced device from Microsoft.
So what's next....
Over it's history, MS has developed versions of Windows for Non-Intel processors - but the reality is they've never really done well. In fact at one time Windows NT supported 4 different processor platforms from Intel, MIPS, DEC - Alpha and PowerPC. Similarly with Windows CE - the precursor to Windows Phone OS, several CPU platforms were supported.
But at the end of the day, MS feels most comfortable developing Windows with their longest partner Intel. The same will be true now for phones.
The expectation is that whatever brand the next Microsoft phone is called it most likely will be based on an Intel processor. Probably some derivative of the Atom X3/X5/X7 series processors.
By making this fundamental platform change, MS solves a development challenge. Specifically it allows the core Windows 10 code base to run without tweaks that allow it to run on Qualcomm processors. It also allows Intel features that are readily available on tablets - like WiDi, RealSense, etc., to be fully utilized by Windows 10, just like they are with the Surface line...
There are some rumors that these new Intel based Microsoft phones will be available as soon as 1H 2016 and that folks internal to MS are stating that these new devices will be the "real" Windows 10 phones.
If the rumors are true I expect the release of these new devices to coordinate with the Windows 10 Redstone branch release. In fact I believe these new devices may carry the Surface line name. So finally the Surface Phone.
That leaves the Lumia 950/950XL/550 as kind of a lame duck. MS needed to come out with something that would satisfy all the 2 & 3 series buyers who are well past their 2 year renewal and looking for a refresh. So the 920/1020/1520 users. Also there are several corporate contracts for the 920.
The 550 is targeted at the 630/635/640 folks.
MS needed something that could run Windows 10 Mobile well while they continued to work on their Intel based phone.
MS has never sold more than 1.4M Lumia devices in the US during any one fiscal quarter and I expect the same from the 950/950XL.
The Lumia enthusiasts will be the buyers, and I expect 500K - 750K units to be sold in the US during the holidays. After that I expect sales and prices to drop like a rock.
I know I will not be one of those buyers. In my household we have Windows Phone, iPhone and Android. I know that if I were in the market for a $650 phone - it would NOT be a Lumia 950XL.
As nice as the 950/950XL device specifications are, the overall experience of Windows Phone today just does not justify the premium price.
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