Is the Smartphone Dead ? - Some observations

Recently a gentleman over at Windows Central named Jason Ward wrote a 3 part article entitled "Smartphones are Dead".  

You can find the article here:
http://www.windowscentral.com/smartphones-are-dead-part-iii-how-microsoft-apple-and-google-are-preparing-shift

In his articles Mr Ward discusses three keys points...

• Current Smartphones are really Mini-Tablet Computers
• MS's approach to the "Mini-Tablet"
• How MS, Apple and Google are working to support the next compute paradigm

On the first point, I couldn't agree with Mr Ward more.  I have felt for years that the modern "Smartphones" are in fact computers and should be treated as such. 

Even in the pre-iPhone days when MS ruled the space with Windows CE based devices from HTC, HP and others - it was my hope that "smartphones" would be designed and built by what I describe as Tier 1 hardware vendors like HP, Dell, Lenovo, Asus, Samsung, LG, Motorola, etc and that like PCs you would have the option to download and install whatever OS you wanted.  Unfortunately that day has still not arrived.

Apple changed the paradigm greatly with the iPhone - not just because of hardware and iOS but more importantly by creating what we now call "ecosystems".  The inclusion of iTunes and the AppStore changed everything about how companies approached customers and provided value.  Today many folks are "tied" to an Ecosystem like Apple or Google and to a lesser extent MS.

Additionally as the availability of apps exploded along with improved compute, display, networking and cloud resources, for many their "phone" has become their primary compute device.  Today a modern smartphone has the equivalent computing power of PCs of just a few years ago.  Phones today have Octa Core CPU, High end 4K GPU, 12Mp Cameras, along with WiFI, BT, NFC and of course LTE.  

This model has become so compelling that in less than a decade these devices went from being about 1/5 the size market of PCs to 5 times the size of the PC market and growing.  In fact if the current growth rates for Smartphones and shrink rate of PC sales continues - the "smartphone" market will be some 14 times greater than PC by 2020.  

To the second & third points - Mr Ward goes on to discuss how the big three Google, Apple and MS are trying to approach this new paradigm.  His focus was on how each of these vendors were either A) merging their PC/Phone OS or B) providing some extension capabilities to phones.

In earlier articles I've discussed technologies like MS's Continuum along with devices like the upcoming HP Elite X3 and now Acer's Liquid Jade Primo along with new companies like Nex and NexDock, that extend the phone's display to a larger screen and provide keyboard/mouse and Ethernet support 

Mr Ward also included some content on Apple's upcoming Continuity capability - which while not identical to Continuum does provide some cohesiveness between phone and PC.

The use cases are potentially very interesting.  I can certainly see a situation where either at a corporate cubicle or home office where you can insert your phone into a dock, extend the screen to a large format like a 25" or so, have full keyboard/mouse capabilities and attach to gig Ethernet.  Much like folks do today with laptops.  

Think about it.  Today with most companies - you get a laptop and a phone. You access many corp apps via the web, use Box or OneDrive for shared storage and maybe Office365.  

Now sure the mobile OS versions of many core productivity and other apps are not as sophisticated as their PC counterparts - but for many uses cases it doesn't matter.  With so many working folks today being Mobile (some 81%) it certainly makes sense.

There is also a growing choice in the US of Dual-SIM phones.   So think about the scenario where you have a device with your personal SIM and a Corp one. 

Now your company only has to set up a Telco account for you - and maybe send you 1 device or you bring your own device with the extension capabilities mentioned above.  This is one area where in my opinion Apple is missing the boat.  

As far the the merging of OS goes - I'm not sure that really matters.  So for example do I need a full blown Windows PC to run Office365 Online - no.   So unless I am running an app that truly needs the compute power of modern Intel Core CPUs - I may not need a PC - period.  

I'm not 100% that merging OS lines moves us forward that much since the SoC model is very different from traditional Intel model.  Plus there is a huge community out there developing for iOS and Android that really don't care about Windows or Windows phone.  

Folks have argued for years that tools like Office have become just massive bloatware pumped full of features that we never use.  In fact for many - they use iOS Apps like Pages, Numbers and Keynote or Google Docs.  

My point here being is that today how people work and communicate is very different.   Mr Ward for example notes that voice ranks 6th on the app usage model for most smartphones.  And when you look at how folks communicate today over Text or Slack or whatever - it makes sense.

Bottom line is this.  That shiny new Smartphone you have is in fact a very portable computer and always has been, it probably has an much compute, better, graphics, and networking than any PC you've ever owned.   Chances are in the next 5 years it will be the only compute device you'll own.  In my opinion what would be very cool is for me to be able to purchase any device I want from any vendor and load whatever OS I choose, choose my provider or leverage any or all ecosystems.