Tesla Model 3 - Would you buy one ?
Yesterday I watched Elon Musk announce the Tesla Model 3. This $35K all electric vehicle with 215 mile range is as Elon describes it the 3rd phase of his vision of producing zero pollution vehicles (ZPV).
I also witnessed something that I don't every remember seeing and that is people lining up to pay the $1,000 reservation fee for a vehicle that will not be delivered until late 2017 - so maybe 18 - 20 months from now. It was a news event here in Scottsdale, were some 350 - 500 people lined up in Scottsdale Fashion Square mall - where Tesla has a showroom. Since many of those folks did that during the day - they were laying down a deposit on a vehicle sight unseen since the debut was not until 8:30P PDT.
As of the time of this post about 1PM PDT on April 1, estimated 200,000 people have reserved a model 3. That number may easily double or triple in the coming weeks. That means that Tesla brought in yesterday $200M and a potential $8B+ in sales if everybody who reserved actually buys a car.
Elon stated that the production facility in Freemont, CA - which was part of the old New United Motor Manufactuing Inc (NUMMI/Saturn) - will be capable of production runs of up to 500,000 vehicles annually. So there is a possibility that before the first vehicle rolls off the line - that the entire production year may be accounted for.
To me this is unprecedented and it shows A) how much interest folks have in Tesla and B) how much pent up demand there is for an afforable All Electric Vehicle (AEV).
As I mentioned the Model 3 states a 215 mile range per charge with supercharging capabilities standard. Tesla supercharging is a capability to provide up to a 50% charge in as little as 20 minutes and a full charge in under an hour. While obviously not as fast as filing up your gas tank - it's still pretty quick when you consider that most charge times using conventional equipment is measured in hours.
Today there are some 2400+ Supercharging stations and Elon mentioned that the number would double before the Model 3 hits the streets. In addition Tesla plans on there being some 14,000 what are called "destination" chargers - so traditional chargers at malls, hotels, etc.
So a little more on the vehicle itself. The model 3 will do 0 to 60 mph in under six seconds, has both front and rear trunks, will carry a 5 star crash rating in all areas and it designed to sit 5 adults "comfortably". Additionally the model will have Tesla's automonous driving capability known as AutoPilot. So think cruise control on steroids.
There will be both single and dual motor models and from some of the early reviews from journalists who attended the event the Model 3 was quick and smooth - albeit most only got like a 60 second ride around the design facility.
From a design perspective - the grill-less front takes a little getting used to - but the side and rear profiles look quite nice and it has an all glass roof. That may be potentially a show stopper for us desert rats here in AZ where interior temperatures in the summer can easily reach 170 degrees. Even with proactive cooling - it may be difficult to park a model 3 in the AZ sun while at work and expect to have a charge left over when you come out - unless your plugged in.
Additionally there is no traditional instrument cluster - only a 15" landscape oriented screen centered across the front dash. I can also see that as being a potential issue for some drivers as they may get distracted trying to decipher the display or dealing with potential glare from the glass roof.
With those few design call outs - overall the model 3 appears to be an impressive vehicle and may be very interesting competition to cars like the Mercedes C Class, BMW 3 series and Audi A3.
The Model 3s nearest competitor will be the Chevy Volt - which is planned for release later this year. While it also has a 200+ mile range, it will not have the speed of the Tesla or from the looks of it - the room. It also will not have supercharging. Chevy states 25mi or range per hour of charging and that with a 240 volt home charger will take 9 hours to fully charge. While the Bolt will obviously have the backing and large scale build experience of GM - it will be interesting to see how well it sells. The other main competitor in the Nissan Leaf - but today that car only has a 100 mi range.
With either car - the next question to me is - can either be a primary replacement vehicle ? I think it really depends on your expectations.
Let's go through a couple of scenarios.
First a normal business trip I take is from Anaheim CA to San Diego and back. Using the start and end points I normally use the drive is approx 90 mi each direction - so 180 total. So in theory the model 3 could make it on a single charge. But that assumes smooth driving all the way. What if I get stuck in So Cal's well known traffic and am suddenly crawling along for an hour plus @ 20 mph. Would I make it ?
Next is a drive from my home in Scottsdale to Disneyland in Anaheim. That drive is 390 mi. So in theory - starting with a full charge and then making 1 full charge stop.
The challenge today however is that while there are Tesla supercharger stations on the route - they are not strategically enough placed. I can make it from my home to the supercharging station in Quartzite, AZ (160 mi) - no problem - but then I would have a 230 mi segment to reach my destination - which is beyond the range of the model 3. So that means a 2nd stop stop. The good news is that there is another supercharging station in Cabazon CA, - 155 mi from Quartzite. But overall assuming a 1 hour charging time at each location - would add 2 hours to the overall driving time of just about 6 hours.
So yes while I can make both scenarios work - the long distance travel scenario is a little cumbersome assuming your stopping about every 2 hours or so to charge for an hour.
The best scenario is obviously the live/work local scenario where you can easily do a daily RT to work without having to find a charger. In this scenario the Model 3 will shine. According to the US DOT - some 90% of daily commuters are within 30 miles of their work. Even in areas with dense traffic the model 3 will work fine.
One of the interesting things today about AEVs and charging is since there has been a lot of incentives out there to promote AEVs there are a lot of places you can plug in for free. It will be interesting to see how that will change in the coming years as the number of AEVs on the road increase. One thing I am surprised in that I have not seen yet are "charging stations" run by the local utilities.
One thing you should check out with your local utility are special EV "time of day" plans. These plans provide super low "overnight" rates for charging your vehicle. Here in AZ there is what they call a Super Off Peak demand period from 11 PM to 5 AM and is as little as $.04 per kWh. But that assumes you are only plugged in during those times. Assuming the Model 3 is like a 50kWh vehicle that means you could charge it up for $2 / day.
Bottom line is this. Elon Musk and Tesla have really tapped into a vein here in the US around AEV. For a company to take in over $200M of pre-order cash on potential sales of over $8B on a vehicle that folks will not see for nearly two years is absolutely amazing.
Ever since the introduction of the Model S - I've been evaluating if my next vehicle be an AEV. I think the Model 3 is going to usher in a wave of AEV models and so yes it most likely will.
I also witnessed something that I don't every remember seeing and that is people lining up to pay the $1,000 reservation fee for a vehicle that will not be delivered until late 2017 - so maybe 18 - 20 months from now. It was a news event here in Scottsdale, were some 350 - 500 people lined up in Scottsdale Fashion Square mall - where Tesla has a showroom. Since many of those folks did that during the day - they were laying down a deposit on a vehicle sight unseen since the debut was not until 8:30P PDT.
As of the time of this post about 1PM PDT on April 1, estimated 200,000 people have reserved a model 3. That number may easily double or triple in the coming weeks. That means that Tesla brought in yesterday $200M and a potential $8B+ in sales if everybody who reserved actually buys a car.
Elon stated that the production facility in Freemont, CA - which was part of the old New United Motor Manufactuing Inc (NUMMI/Saturn) - will be capable of production runs of up to 500,000 vehicles annually. So there is a possibility that before the first vehicle rolls off the line - that the entire production year may be accounted for.
To me this is unprecedented and it shows A) how much interest folks have in Tesla and B) how much pent up demand there is for an afforable All Electric Vehicle (AEV).
As I mentioned the Model 3 states a 215 mile range per charge with supercharging capabilities standard. Tesla supercharging is a capability to provide up to a 50% charge in as little as 20 minutes and a full charge in under an hour. While obviously not as fast as filing up your gas tank - it's still pretty quick when you consider that most charge times using conventional equipment is measured in hours.
Today there are some 2400+ Supercharging stations and Elon mentioned that the number would double before the Model 3 hits the streets. In addition Tesla plans on there being some 14,000 what are called "destination" chargers - so traditional chargers at malls, hotels, etc.
So a little more on the vehicle itself. The model 3 will do 0 to 60 mph in under six seconds, has both front and rear trunks, will carry a 5 star crash rating in all areas and it designed to sit 5 adults "comfortably". Additionally the model will have Tesla's automonous driving capability known as AutoPilot. So think cruise control on steroids.
There will be both single and dual motor models and from some of the early reviews from journalists who attended the event the Model 3 was quick and smooth - albeit most only got like a 60 second ride around the design facility.
From a design perspective - the grill-less front takes a little getting used to - but the side and rear profiles look quite nice and it has an all glass roof. That may be potentially a show stopper for us desert rats here in AZ where interior temperatures in the summer can easily reach 170 degrees. Even with proactive cooling - it may be difficult to park a model 3 in the AZ sun while at work and expect to have a charge left over when you come out - unless your plugged in.
Additionally there is no traditional instrument cluster - only a 15" landscape oriented screen centered across the front dash. I can also see that as being a potential issue for some drivers as they may get distracted trying to decipher the display or dealing with potential glare from the glass roof.
With those few design call outs - overall the model 3 appears to be an impressive vehicle and may be very interesting competition to cars like the Mercedes C Class, BMW 3 series and Audi A3.
The Model 3s nearest competitor will be the Chevy Volt - which is planned for release later this year. While it also has a 200+ mile range, it will not have the speed of the Tesla or from the looks of it - the room. It also will not have supercharging. Chevy states 25mi or range per hour of charging and that with a 240 volt home charger will take 9 hours to fully charge. While the Bolt will obviously have the backing and large scale build experience of GM - it will be interesting to see how well it sells. The other main competitor in the Nissan Leaf - but today that car only has a 100 mi range.
With either car - the next question to me is - can either be a primary replacement vehicle ? I think it really depends on your expectations.
Let's go through a couple of scenarios.
First a normal business trip I take is from Anaheim CA to San Diego and back. Using the start and end points I normally use the drive is approx 90 mi each direction - so 180 total. So in theory the model 3 could make it on a single charge. But that assumes smooth driving all the way. What if I get stuck in So Cal's well known traffic and am suddenly crawling along for an hour plus @ 20 mph. Would I make it ?
Next is a drive from my home in Scottsdale to Disneyland in Anaheim. That drive is 390 mi. So in theory - starting with a full charge and then making 1 full charge stop.
The challenge today however is that while there are Tesla supercharger stations on the route - they are not strategically enough placed. I can make it from my home to the supercharging station in Quartzite, AZ (160 mi) - no problem - but then I would have a 230 mi segment to reach my destination - which is beyond the range of the model 3. So that means a 2nd stop stop. The good news is that there is another supercharging station in Cabazon CA, - 155 mi from Quartzite. But overall assuming a 1 hour charging time at each location - would add 2 hours to the overall driving time of just about 6 hours.
So yes while I can make both scenarios work - the long distance travel scenario is a little cumbersome assuming your stopping about every 2 hours or so to charge for an hour.
The best scenario is obviously the live/work local scenario where you can easily do a daily RT to work without having to find a charger. In this scenario the Model 3 will shine. According to the US DOT - some 90% of daily commuters are within 30 miles of their work. Even in areas with dense traffic the model 3 will work fine.
One of the interesting things today about AEVs and charging is since there has been a lot of incentives out there to promote AEVs there are a lot of places you can plug in for free. It will be interesting to see how that will change in the coming years as the number of AEVs on the road increase. One thing I am surprised in that I have not seen yet are "charging stations" run by the local utilities.
One thing you should check out with your local utility are special EV "time of day" plans. These plans provide super low "overnight" rates for charging your vehicle. Here in AZ there is what they call a Super Off Peak demand period from 11 PM to 5 AM and is as little as $.04 per kWh. But that assumes you are only plugged in during those times. Assuming the Model 3 is like a 50kWh vehicle that means you could charge it up for $2 / day.
Bottom line is this. Elon Musk and Tesla have really tapped into a vein here in the US around AEV. For a company to take in over $200M of pre-order cash on potential sales of over $8B on a vehicle that folks will not see for nearly two years is absolutely amazing.
Ever since the introduction of the Model S - I've been evaluating if my next vehicle be an AEV. I think the Model 3 is going to usher in a wave of AEV models and so yes it most likely will.
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