2016 WorldWide Smartphone Market - Apple's Huge Q1 - but overall loss for 2016
On Feb 1 IDC published their most recent Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker data for 2016 Q4.
Overall some 1.47B smartphones were sold Worldwide in 2016 - a 2.3% increase over the 1.43B sold in 2015.
Samsung still remains the overall market leader with 311M units sold and a 21.2% market share. This is a 3.0% drop from 2015's 320.9M units which was reflective of impact of the Galaxy Note 7 battery problems.
Apple is #2 with a 14.6% market share on volume of 215M units. Even with a monster calendar Q4 (Apple's Q1) - of some 78.3M units - Apple saw a 7% drop in total units compared to 2015's 231.5M units.
The next three vendors all saw tremendous growth in 2016 and combined would exceed both Samsung and Apple. These three Chinese vendors - #3 Huawei, #4 Oppo and #5 vivo sold 139.3M, 99.4M and 77.3M units respectively with growth rates of 30.2%, 132.9% and 103.2%.
If these growth rates continue - Oppo will pass both Huawei and Apple in 2017. Oppo sells mostly in China, India and Southern Asia, and is trying to expand into additional markets.
Like in the PC market - the huge "Others" category (627.8M units and 42.7% market share) which includes vendors like LG, Xaomi, Lenovo (Moto), Alcatel and others saw contraction of nearly 10% over 2015.
One of the more notable players that went away in 2016 was Microsoft - who basically bailed from the mobile phone market, instead choosing to allow partners like HP and Acer to try and keep it alive. Remember at one point MS maintained upwards of a 3.5% market share - which would have placed them in the top 10.
The one trend that is continuing is the massive growth in the $250 - $300 Average Selling Price (ASP) market. While the iPhones and Galaxys of the world still obviously sell well - the massive growth is in the that next tier. And while Samsung does have products like the J3 in that space, Apple really doesn't. Even their "entry" level SE device is $399 and it gets blown away from a specs/capability perspective, by the Chinese competitors.
The other trend that is continuing is what I call the PC multiple. For 2016 the smartphone market was 5.65 times the size of the PC market - which saw it's 5th consecutive of sales decline with 260M units sold. Samsung alone sold more phones than the entire industry sold PCs.
For 2017 - I expect more of the same. Apple and Samsung have effectively peaked and while there is a lot of expectation around the iPhone 8 - I don't think it will move the needle dramatically for Apple in 2017 from an unit volume or market share perspective. Same with the Galaxy S8.
For both companies to see double digit growth they need to figure out an entry phone in that magic $250 - $300 market that competes with their Chinese competitors. And to be honest I'm not sure if either vendor can stop the onslaught of these vendors.
It would not surprise me that one or both of the top 2 get surpassed in 2018.
Overall some 1.47B smartphones were sold Worldwide in 2016 - a 2.3% increase over the 1.43B sold in 2015.
Samsung still remains the overall market leader with 311M units sold and a 21.2% market share. This is a 3.0% drop from 2015's 320.9M units which was reflective of impact of the Galaxy Note 7 battery problems.
Apple is #2 with a 14.6% market share on volume of 215M units. Even with a monster calendar Q4 (Apple's Q1) - of some 78.3M units - Apple saw a 7% drop in total units compared to 2015's 231.5M units.
The next three vendors all saw tremendous growth in 2016 and combined would exceed both Samsung and Apple. These three Chinese vendors - #3 Huawei, #4 Oppo and #5 vivo sold 139.3M, 99.4M and 77.3M units respectively with growth rates of 30.2%, 132.9% and 103.2%.
If these growth rates continue - Oppo will pass both Huawei and Apple in 2017. Oppo sells mostly in China, India and Southern Asia, and is trying to expand into additional markets.
Like in the PC market - the huge "Others" category (627.8M units and 42.7% market share) which includes vendors like LG, Xaomi, Lenovo (Moto), Alcatel and others saw contraction of nearly 10% over 2015.
One of the more notable players that went away in 2016 was Microsoft - who basically bailed from the mobile phone market, instead choosing to allow partners like HP and Acer to try and keep it alive. Remember at one point MS maintained upwards of a 3.5% market share - which would have placed them in the top 10.
The one trend that is continuing is the massive growth in the $250 - $300 Average Selling Price (ASP) market. While the iPhones and Galaxys of the world still obviously sell well - the massive growth is in the that next tier. And while Samsung does have products like the J3 in that space, Apple really doesn't. Even their "entry" level SE device is $399 and it gets blown away from a specs/capability perspective, by the Chinese competitors.
The other trend that is continuing is what I call the PC multiple. For 2016 the smartphone market was 5.65 times the size of the PC market - which saw it's 5th consecutive of sales decline with 260M units sold. Samsung alone sold more phones than the entire industry sold PCs.
For 2017 - I expect more of the same. Apple and Samsung have effectively peaked and while there is a lot of expectation around the iPhone 8 - I don't think it will move the needle dramatically for Apple in 2017 from an unit volume or market share perspective. Same with the Galaxy S8.
For both companies to see double digit growth they need to figure out an entry phone in that magic $250 - $300 market that competes with their Chinese competitors. And to be honest I'm not sure if either vendor can stop the onslaught of these vendors.
It would not surprise me that one or both of the top 2 get surpassed in 2018.
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