Windows 10 Mobile is Dead - Can MS compete in an iOS /Android world on just apps ?

On Oct 8, Joe Belfiore - an MS Corporate Vice President and one time lead of the Windows Device division - effectively announced the official death of Windows 10 Mobile via a couple of tweets..

As an individual end-user, I switched platforms for the app/hw diversity. We will support those users too! Choose what's best 4 u. 

and 

Of course we'll continue to support the platform.. bug fixes, security updates, etc. But building new features/hw aren't the focus. 

MS recently announced the availability of their Edge browser for iOS and Android and also updated their Android Launcher previous known as Arrow.  

So while MS has certainly developed a portfolio of apps for both iOS and Android (many of which were better than their Windows 10 Mobile counterparts).  The question now is can MS really compete and maintain any sort of brand in the mobile space.

So I have an Android device running Nougat and have several MS apps installed.  But for example with Office - I really only use it to read an attachment in native format.  I use OneDrive - but also use Box, I have Teams - but also use Slack.  And with the recent announcement regarding Groove - I will be moving to Spotify or Google Music.  

I have Outlook - but my company uses VMware's Boxer as a mail client even though we have Office365.  I use LinkedIn - but MS has never really integrated their huge contacts database into any MS mainstream apps.  I don't use Skype - when there is WebEx, Jabber, Spark and other capabilities

And that's were MS stops.  The vast majority of my apps are for banks, travel (hotels, airlines, uber, etc), home automation (i.e. SmartThings, Nest, Ring, etc).  

And this is where MS has fallen over.   In the past - any new release of Windows generated a wave of upgrades and often new apps and anyone wanting to make a name for themselves in the marketplace developed a Windows app.   Well that's no more.  In fact Joe even called that issue out...

We have tried VERY HARD to incent app devs. Paid money.. wrote apps 4 them.. but volume of users is too low for most companies to invest. 

And then there are the camera, messaging, phone, pay apps, etc. MS in some cases had good apps - but how are they going to convince an Android OEM to allow them to come in and write those core apps.  

One area MS is very strong in is the voice engine around Cortana.  And even to this day - Google, Apple and Samsung can't figure out how to read an incoming text message to you while your driving and let you dictate a response.  MS had this way back with Windows Phone 8 - but still have no offering like it for iOS or Android.

With that said - MS is going to struggle not only maintaining an identity in the mobile space via their apps - but in the Windows space as well.  As I've mentioned many times before - MS has lost an entire generation of developers to iOS and Android and will never get them back.  And with Windows 10 not really being the catalyst for new apps - the long term impact here may be substantial.  

For many mobile users - MS has no relevance what so ever.   At most maybe Exchange for which they don't need Outlook to use.

As much as MS has invested in things like Touch, Pen, IR Identity (Hello), 3D and AR - the market really hasn't moved.  

While MS has done a great job with Azure and Office365.  I have the distinct feeling that they are going to fade to black on the client side.  Windows will continue to become less and less relevant in a mobile world and the light at the end of the tunnel is in fact a train....

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