PC Sales 2016 Q3 - Still slowly shrinking
On Oct 11, Gartner released their PC sales analysis for Q3 of 2016.
Worldwide - some 68.9M PCs were sold - a 5.7% decline from the the 73M sold in Q3 of 2013.
Worldwide - top 6 vendor rankings remain unchanged with Lenovo, HP, Dell, Asus, Apple and Acer in that order. While HP, Dell and Asus had modest gains of 2.3 - 2.6% - Lenovo had a drop of about the same size @ 2.3%. The big losers here again was Apple and Acer who saw unit sales drop 13.4 and 14.1% respectively.
For the US the picture was slightly better. The drop in total US sales was effectively a rounding error @ 0.3% - 16.1M units vs 16.2 in 2015. The top 5 here are the same players in a slightly different order with HP, Dell, Lenovo, Apple and Asus as the top five. While HP and Dell sales were pretty flat, Lenovo saw a 15.3% gain in Q3 while Apple saw a 10.7% decline in sales.
There continues to be consolidation in the industry as the "others" category of vendors saw a 16.2% decline in sales worldwide and a 13.4% decline here in the US. So while the top are grabbing some share from the "others" - the trend is still flat to downward. The top 6 now garner some 78% of the total market - which is a record high.
Observations from the analysts noted two factors. First the average age of PCs continues to climb @ 5.4 years old and many interviewed has no immediate plans to replace that PC in the next 12 months. Second emerging market demand is weak as the smartphone is the preferred choice over a desktop.
While unit sales were not called out specifically, the analysts note that Chromebooks continue to increase in share as folks are looking for less complicated solutions.
To date PC sales total is right at 190M for 2016. Looking forward, I expect PC sales to total around 255 - 260M units in 2016 vs 275M in 2015, which will be somewhere around a 6% drop. This is slightly better than I estimated back in April, when I called out 250M - but not by much. And as many of the vendors outside the top 6 continue to see sales drop by double digits, it is possible that we may reach that 250M mark.
Even with normal market catalysts like new operating systems, pen input, hybrid form factors, HD displays, long battery life in laptops, etc - sales are not increasing. The post PC era is here to stay.
Even many corporate buyers are considering Wyse terminals and VDI over PCs and Laptops and many Sales orgs are moving almost exclusively to smartphones as the array and sophistication of mobile apps continues to increase. This is why you're seeing MS place an emphasis on Continuum in the Mobile space.
While some analysts say that 2017 will see a bump in PC sales, I disagree. Between now and 2020 I expect to see PC sales fall into the low 200M range - maybe even below.
Worldwide - some 68.9M PCs were sold - a 5.7% decline from the the 73M sold in Q3 of 2013.
Worldwide - top 6 vendor rankings remain unchanged with Lenovo, HP, Dell, Asus, Apple and Acer in that order. While HP, Dell and Asus had modest gains of 2.3 - 2.6% - Lenovo had a drop of about the same size @ 2.3%. The big losers here again was Apple and Acer who saw unit sales drop 13.4 and 14.1% respectively.
For the US the picture was slightly better. The drop in total US sales was effectively a rounding error @ 0.3% - 16.1M units vs 16.2 in 2015. The top 5 here are the same players in a slightly different order with HP, Dell, Lenovo, Apple and Asus as the top five. While HP and Dell sales were pretty flat, Lenovo saw a 15.3% gain in Q3 while Apple saw a 10.7% decline in sales.
There continues to be consolidation in the industry as the "others" category of vendors saw a 16.2% decline in sales worldwide and a 13.4% decline here in the US. So while the top are grabbing some share from the "others" - the trend is still flat to downward. The top 6 now garner some 78% of the total market - which is a record high.
Observations from the analysts noted two factors. First the average age of PCs continues to climb @ 5.4 years old and many interviewed has no immediate plans to replace that PC in the next 12 months. Second emerging market demand is weak as the smartphone is the preferred choice over a desktop.
While unit sales were not called out specifically, the analysts note that Chromebooks continue to increase in share as folks are looking for less complicated solutions.
To date PC sales total is right at 190M for 2016. Looking forward, I expect PC sales to total around 255 - 260M units in 2016 vs 275M in 2015, which will be somewhere around a 6% drop. This is slightly better than I estimated back in April, when I called out 250M - but not by much. And as many of the vendors outside the top 6 continue to see sales drop by double digits, it is possible that we may reach that 250M mark.
Even with normal market catalysts like new operating systems, pen input, hybrid form factors, HD displays, long battery life in laptops, etc - sales are not increasing. The post PC era is here to stay.
Even many corporate buyers are considering Wyse terminals and VDI over PCs and Laptops and many Sales orgs are moving almost exclusively to smartphones as the array and sophistication of mobile apps continues to increase. This is why you're seeing MS place an emphasis on Continuum in the Mobile space.
While some analysts say that 2017 will see a bump in PC sales, I disagree. Between now and 2020 I expect to see PC sales fall into the low 200M range - maybe even below.
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